Abstract: The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change is usually explained in terms of ?ventilation? where heat and moisture at upper levels are advected away from the low-level circulation, which inhibits ...

Abstract: The hydrostatic form of the primitive equations described by Ooyama is evaluated by comparing nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic integrations of a dry axisymmetric model with a specified entropy (heat) source. In this formulation, ...

Abstract: The effect of nonlinear normal mode initialization (NMI) on tropical cyclone simulations is investigated using a three-layer axisymmetric model. It is shown that the balance condition proposed by Machenhauer, which neglects ...

Abstract: The three-dimensional response of the tropical atmosphere to an isolated heat source is investigated using a primitive equation model linearized about a resting basic state on an equatorial ?-plane. The model equations are ...

Abstract: A barotropic spectral model (BSM) is developed to investigate the possibility of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks with global, general circulation models. The model is governed by a barotropic vorticity equation in ...

Abstract: Tropical cyclone motion is investigated in the context of a nondivergent barotropic model. For this purpose, the nondivergent barotropic vorticity equation is solved on a doubly-periodic midlatitude, ?-plane using a spectral ...

Abstract: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction based on a logistic growth equation (LGE) is developed. The time tendency of the maximum sustained surface winds is proportional to the sum of two ...

Abstract: A version of the Kaplan and DeMaria empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone 1-min maximum sustained surface winds after landfall is developed for the New England region. The original model was developed ...

Abstract: A statistical model for predicting intensity changes of Atlantic tropical cyclones at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h is described. The model was developed using a standard multiple regression technique with climatological, ...

Abstract: Updates to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin are described. SHIPS combines climatological, persistence, and synoptic predictors to forecast intensity changes using a ...