Abstract: The Brier score is widely used for the verification of probability forecasts. It also forms the basis of other frequently used probability scores such as the rank probability score. By conditioning (stratifying) on the ...

Abstract: This study presents various statistical methods for exploring and summarizing spatial extremal properties in large gridpoint datasets. Extremal properties are inferred from the subset of gridpoint values that exceed ...

Abstract: This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has ...

Abstract: This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that ...

Abstract: This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel ...