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RISGeneration of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractMethods for generating ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles based on a simple average of all members at each grid point can have limited utility because of amplitude ...
NAM Model Forecasts of Warm-Season Quasi-Stationary Frontal Environments in the Central United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July?August 2006?08 were examined ...
Evaluation of Ensemble Configurations for the Analysis and Prediction of Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study investigates probabilistic forecasts made using different convection-allowing ensemble configurations for a three-day period in June 2010 when numerous heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) ...
Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The diurnal cycles of rainfall in 5-km grid-spacing convection-resolving and 22-km grid-spacing non-convection-resolving configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to see if significant ...
North Atlantic Hurricanes Contributed by African Easterly Waves North and South of the African Easterly Jet
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A majority of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic develop from African easterly waves (AEWs), which originate along both the southern and northern flanks of the midtropospheric African easterly jet (AEWS and AEWn, ...
Improved Nowcasts by Blending Extrapolation and Model Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: lanning and managing commercial airplane routes to avoid thunderstorms requires very skillful and frequently updated 0?8-h forecasts of convection. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s High-Resolution Rapid ...
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornado and Flash Flood Event Using a Continuous-Update-Cycle Storm-Scale Ensemble System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: continuous-update-cycle storm-scale ensemble data assimilation (DA) and prediction system using the ARW model and DART software is used to generate retrospective 0?6-h ensemble forecasts of the 31 May 2013 tornado and flash ...
A Comparison of 36–60-h Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: revious studies examining convection-allowing models (CAMs), as well as NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) have typically emphasized ?day 1? (12?36 h) forecast guidance. These studies find ...
Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensemble Forecasts of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex and Associated Severe Weather Environment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An analysis of a regional severe weather outbreak that was related to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is performed. The MCV-spawning mesoscale convection system (MCS) formed in northwest Kansas along the southern ...
A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An experiment has been designed to evaluate and compare precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble, ...