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RISDiagnostic Studies of Rainfall Anomalies in Northeast Brazil
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The large-scale atmospheric circulation of the Brazil-Atlantic sector is studied in relation to extreme rainfall anomalies in two large regions of Northeast Brazil (Nordeste). Long-term rainfall series, aerological records ...
Large-Scale Circulation Features Associated with Decadal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical cyclone frequency in the central North Pacific (CNP) from 1966 to 2000 has exhibited decadal-scale variability. A statistical changepoint analysis reveals objectively that the shifts occur in 1982 and 1995, with ...
Hawaii Rainfall Anomalies and El Niño
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An analysis of composite, seasonal rainfall anomalies in Hawaii shows that deficient rainfall tends to occur frequently in winter and spring of the year following an El Niño. The reliability of the El Niño composite has ...
Bayesian Changepoint Analysis for Extreme Events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): An RJMCMC Approach
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A hierarchical Bayesian framework is developed to identify multiple abrupt regime shifts in an extreme event series. Specifically, extreme events are modeled as a Poisson process with a gamma-distributed rate. Multiple ...
Bayesian Change-Point Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity: The Central North Pacific Case
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Bayesian analysis is applied to detect change points in the time series of annual tropical cyclone counts over the central North Pacific. Specifically, a hierarchical Bayesian approach involving three layers?data, parameter, ...
Interannual and Interdecadal Rainfall Variations in the Hawaiian Islands
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Hawaii rainfall has exhibited both interannual and interdecadal variations. On the interannual time scale, Hawaii tends to be dry during most El Niño events, but low rainfall also occurred in the absence of El Niño. On the ...
Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Analysis of Hurricane Activity in the Eastern North Pacific: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A Bayesian framework is developed to detect multiple abrupt shifts in a time series of the annual major hurricanes counts. The hurricane counts are modeled by a Poisson process where the Poisson intensity (i.e., hurricane ...
A Bayesian Regression Approach for Predicting Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In this study, a Poisson generalized linear regression model cast in the Bayesian framework is applied to forecast the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the central North Pacific (CNP) in the peak hurricane season ...
Modeling Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Intensities in the Vicinity of Hawaii
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Hawaii have resulted in great property damage. An estimate of the return periods of tropical cyclone intensities is of particular interest to governments, public interest groups, and ...
Tropical Cyclone Occurrences in the Vicinity of Hawaii: Are the Differences between El Niño and Non–El Niño Years Significant?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Hawaii are rare. However, when they occurred, they caused enormous property damage. The authors have examined historical records (1949?95) of cyclones and classified them into El Niño ...