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RISUnderstanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: When analyzing multimodel climate ensembles it is often assumed that the ensemble is either truth centered or that models and observations are drawn from the same distribution. Here we analyze CMIP5 ensembles focusing on ...
Bimodality of the Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Wave Amplitude Index
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The evidence for multiple flow regimes in the planetary-scale atmospheric wave amplitude index (WAI) is studied using the 56 winters from the NCEP reanalysis data. The regimes are identified by bimodality in the probability ...
Volcanic Eruptions, Large-Scale Modes in the Northern Hemisphere, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The author analyzes the impact of 13 major stratospheric aerosol producing volcanic eruptions since 1870 on the large-scale variability modes of sea level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The paper focuses on ...
Is the Atmosphere Interesting? A Projection Pursuit Study of the Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere Winter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is probed for deviations from Gaussianity. A projection pursuit approach is applied that searches for directions in phase space that maximize an index of interest. Different indices ...
Chaos, Quasiperiodicity, and Interannual Variability: Studies of a Stratospheric Vacillation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The parameter space of a stratospheric vacillation model is investigated numerically. The model is the quasigeostrophic ?-plane model introduced by Holton and Mass with time-independent forcing at the lower boundary. Chaotic ...
Stratospheric Bimodality: Can the Equatorial QBO Explain the Regime Behavior of the NH Winter Vortex?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Northern Hemisphere extended winter mean stratospheric vortex alternates between a strong and a weak state, which is manifested in a statistically significant bimodal distribution. In the end of the 1970s a regime ...
Reply to “Comments on ‘Reconstructing the NH Mean Temperature: Can Underestimation of Trends and Variability be Avoided?’”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Changes in Temperature Records and Extremes: Are They Statistically Significant?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he author investigates whether the increasing numbers of warm records and warm extremes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere over the last decade are statistically significant. For the extremes, the focus is on summer ...
Straight Line Fitting and Predictions: On a Marginal Likelihood Approach to Linear Regression and Errors-In-Variables Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ven in the simple case of univariate linear regression and prediction there are important choices to be made regarding the origins of the noise terms and regarding which of the two variables under consideration that should ...
Evidence for Nonlinear Climate Change: Two Stratospheric Regimes and a Regime Shift
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two regimes are found in the interannual variability of the large-scale stratospheric flow in the Northern Hemisphere cold season. The regimes are identified by studying the probability distribution of the leading principal ...