Abstract: new proper score, the error-spread score (ES), has recently been proposed for evaluation of ensemble forecasts of continuous variables. The ES is formulated with respect to the moments of the ensemble forecast. It is ...

Abstract: Information in decadal climate prediction arises from a well-initialized ocean state and from the predicted response to an external forcing. The length of time over which the initial conditions benefit the decadal forecast ...

Abstract: mportant questions concerning parameterization of tropical convection are how should subgrid-scale variability be represented and which large-scale variables should be used in the parameterizations? Here the statistics of ...

Abstract: t is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is essential for the production of reliable probabilistic forecasts, and a number of different techniques have been proposed for this ...

Abstract: l Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. However, the models in the ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have large ...

Abstract: AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short ...