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Interannual Variability of Skill of NMC Medium-Range Forecasts over the Pacific/North America Sector
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Six hundred cases of wintertime 1- to 10-day operational forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecasting System are examined for their variabilities in performance. In addition to hemispheric-wide ...
Dynamical Prediction at Medium-Extended Ranges Employing Low-Frequency PNA Mode
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Experiments on dynamical extended-range forecasting (DERF) conducted at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are analysed for the relationships between skill of medium-extended-range forecasts over the Pacific-North ...
Assessment of Southern Oscillation Sea-Level Pressure Indices
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Monthly sea-level pressure anomalies at Easter Island, Rapa, Tahiti and Darwin, for the period 1951?79, are analysed to reveal their temporal characteristics and the coherence and time lead/lag relationships among them. ...
Fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere 700 mb Height Field Associated with the Southern Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Variations in the mid-troposphere circulation associated with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated and documented using mean monthly 700 mb height data for the period 1951?79. The SO was defined by a Southern ...
Analysis of Vorticity and Divergence Fields and Other Meteorological Parameters over Lake Ontario during IFYGL
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Surface wind data obtained from the United States and Canadian International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL) buoy network are used to estimate the vorticity and divergence feeds over Like Ontario. Hourly values of ...
Energy Dissipation Rates of Free Atmospheric Turbulence
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Energy spectra of high?altitude atmospheric turbulence data were analyzed. Kolmogorov's similarity theory for the inertial subrange was applied to infer energy dissipation rates from the spectra. The dissipation rates ...
Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting ...