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RISInherent Predictability, Requirements on the Ensemble Size, and Complementarity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: aced with the scenario when prediction skill is low, particularly in conjunction with long-range predictions, a commonly proposed solution is that an increase in ensemble size will rectify the issue of low skill. Although ...
Winter 2015/16 Atmospheric and Precipitation Anomalies over North America: El Niño Response and the Role of Noise
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe possible causes for the observed winter 2015/16 precipitation anomalies, which were opposite to the mean El Niño signal over the U.S. Southwest, are analyzed based on the ensemble of forecasts from the NCEP ...
Impacts of Ocean Surface on the Northward Propagation of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Impacts of the ocean surface on the representation of the northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (NPBSISO) over the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using the National Centers for Environmental ...
Prediction of Monthly-Mean Temperature: The Roles of Atmospheric and Land Initial Conditions and Sea Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Using the retrospective forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled atmosphere?ocean Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations ...
Understanding Prediction Skill of Seasonal Mean Precipitation over the Tropics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he connection between the local SST and precipitation (SST?P) correlation and the prediction skill of precipitation on a seasonal time scale is investigated based on seasonal hindcasts from the National Centers for ...
Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n this paper, possible connections between actual and potential skill are discussed. Actual skill refers to when the prediction time series is validated against the observations as the verification while perfect skill ...
An Assessment of the CFS Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study assesses the real-time seasonal forecasts for 2005?08 with the current National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). The forecasts are compared with retrospective forecasts ...
Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of ...
Seasonal Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent from a Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hile fully coupled atmosphere?ocean models have been used to study the seasonal predictability of sea ice variations within the context of models? own variability, their capability in predicting the observed sea ice at the ...
Global Land Precipitation: A 50-yr Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper describes the initial work toward the production of monthly global (land and ocean) analyses of precipitation for an extended period from 1948 to the present. Called the precipitation reconstruction (PREC), the ...