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RISCombination of Multimodel Probabilistic Forecasts Using an Optimal Weighting System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractIn this study, an optimal weighting system is developed that combines multiple seasonal probabilistic forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The system is applied to predict temperature and ...
ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: Composite Analysis and Validation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractIn this study, precipitation and temperature forecasts during El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are examined in six models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME), including the CFSv2, CanCM3, ...
The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n ordinary regression of predicted versus observed probabilities is presented as a direct and simple procedure for minimizing the Brier score (BS) and improving the attributes diagram. The main example applies to seasonal ...
Uncertainties in North American Land Data Assimilation Systems over the Contiguous United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the University of Washington (UW) run parallel drought monitoring systems over the continental United States based on ...