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RISAn Objective Method for Inferring Sources of Model Error
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A restricted statistical correction (RSC) approach is introduced to assess the sources of error in general circulation models (GCMs). RSC models short-term forecast error by considering linear transformations of the GCM's ...
Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The ...
Attribution of the Extreme U.S. East Coast Snowstorm Activity of 2010
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study examines the cause of the extreme snowstorm activity along the U.S. East Coast during the winter of 2009/10 with a focus on the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The study employs the Goddard Earth ...
A Mechanism for Land–Atmosphere Feedback Involving Planetary Wave Structures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hile the ability of land surface conditions to influence the atmosphere has been demonstrated in various modeling and observational studies, the precise mechanisms by which land?atmosphere feedback occurs are still largely ...
The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January Is More Difficult to Predict Than February
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study examines the within-season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December–March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1-month-lead GEOS coupled ...
The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low-Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study examines the variability in forecasts of the January?February?March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation and how that variability is modulated by the El Niño?Southern Oscillation. The analysis is based on ensembles ...
Attribution of the 2017 Northern High Plains Drought
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Phase Locking of the Boreal Summer Atmospheric Response to Dry Land Surface Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Past modeling simulations, supported by observational composites, indicate that during boreal summer, dry soil moisture anomalies in very different locations within the U.S. continental interior tend to induce the same ...
ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50?1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and ...
A Study of Baroclinic Wave Behavior over Bottom Topography Using Complex Principal Component Analysis of Experimental Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Complex principal component analysis is applied to data from three laboratory experiments of flow over two-wave sinusoidal bottom topography in a thermally driven, rotating annulus of fluid. The experiments are conducted ...