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Regional Analysis of Temperature Extremes: Spatial Analog for Climate Change?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The statistical theory of extreme values is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature time series in the U.S. Midwest and Southeast. If the spatial pattern in the frequency of extreme temperature events can be ...
Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part II: Application to Convective Rain Systems
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The authors develop and apply an algorithm to define coherent areas of precipitation, emphasizing mesoscale convection, and compare properties of these areas with observations obtained from NCEP stage-IV precipitation ...
Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part I: Methodology and Application to Mesoscale Rain Areas
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A recently developed method of defining rain areas for the purpose of verifying precipitation produced by numerical weather prediction models is described. Precipitation objects are defined in both forecasts and observations ...
Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, ...
On the Economic Value of Seasonal-Precipitation Forecasts: The Fallowing/Planting Problem
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The so-called fallowing/planting problem is an example of a decision-making situation that is potentially sensitive to meteorological information. In this problem, wheat farmers in the drier, western portions of the northern ...
Time Series Models to Simulate and Forecast Wind Speed and Wind Power
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A general approach for modeling wind speed and wind power is described. Because wind power is a function of wind speed, the methodology is based on the development of a model of wind speed. Values of wind power are estimated ...
Designing Multimodel Ensembles Requires Meaningful Methodologies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Object-Based Analysis of Satellite-Derived Precipitation Systems over the Low- and Midlatitude Pacific Ocean
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) developed by Davis et al. is implemented and extended to characterize the temporal behavior of objects and to perform a diagnostic analysis on the spatial distribution ...
Diagnostic Verification of Temperature Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A diagnostic approach to forecast verification is described and illustrated. This approach is based on a general framework for forecast verification. It is ?diagnostic? in the sense that it focuses on the fundamental ...
Intercomparison of In-Flight Icing Algorithms. Part I: WISP94 Real-Time Icing Prediction and Evaluation Program
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The purpose of the Federal Aviation Administration?s Icing Forecasting Improvement Program is to conduct research on icing conditions both in flight and on the ground. This paper describes a portion of the in-flight aircraft ...