Abstract: nsemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into ...

Abstract: Convective storms are commonplace in the southern plains of the United States. Occasionally, convective storms produce extreme rainfall accumulations, causing streams and rivers to flood. In this paper, we examine the ...

Abstract: Ensemble streamflow prediction systems produce forecasts in the form of a conditional probability distribution for a continuous forecast variable. A distributions-oriented approach is presented for verification of these ...

Abstract: tmospheric rivers (ARs) play a major role in causing extreme precipitation and flooding over the central United States (e.g., Midwest floods of 1993 and 2008). The goal of this study is to characterize rainfall associated ...

Abstract: For probability forecasts, the Brier score and Brier skill score are commonly used verification measures of forecast accuracy and skill. Using sampling theory, analytical expressions are derived to estimate their sampling ...

Abstract: The distributions-oriented approach to forecast verification uses an estimate of the joint distribution of forecasts and observations to evaluate forecast quality. However, small verification data samples can produce ...

Abstract: AbstractThis study assesses the forecast skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting Niño-3/-3.4 indices and improves their skill using Bayesian updating (BU). The forecast skill that is ...

Abstract: Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) multisensor precipitation estimates will be used for a host of applications that include operational streamflow forecasting at the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers ...

Abstract: Analysis of data collected by four disdrometers deployed in a 1-km2 area is presented with the intent of quantifying the spatial variability of radar reflectivity at small spatial scales. Spatial variability of radar ...