Abstract: Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert dynamical forecast information (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts. A logistic model is obtained by setting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear ...

Abstract: Studies on forecast evaluation often rely on estimating limiting observed frequencies conditioned on specific forecast probabilities (the reliability diagram or calibration function). Obviously, statistical estimates of ...

Abstract: Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This ...

Abstract: The reliability diagram is a common diagnostic graph used to summarize and evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Its strengths lie in the ease with which it is produced and the transparency of its definition. While visually ...

Abstract: n a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ...

Abstract: he application of forecast ensembles to probabilistic weather prediction has spurred considerable interest in their evaluation. Such ensembles are commonly interpreted as Monte Carlo ensembles meaning that the ensemble ...