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RISObservational Evidence for Alternate Modes of Track-Altering Binary Tropical Cyclone Scenarios
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An observational study of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TC) revealed many cases of two TCs whose tracks were altered by processes that were quite different from the mutual advection (Fujiwhara-type) processes. ...
Weighted Position and Motion Vector Consensus of Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction in the Western North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two approaches are developed and tested to improve the unweighted position consensus for 96-, 108-, and 120-h tropical cyclone track guidance in the western North Pacific. A weighted position guidance technique uses a ...
Dynamical Tropical Cyclone 96- and 120-h Track Forecast Errors in the Western North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been issuing 96- and 120-h track forecasts since May 2003. It uses four dynamical models that provide guidance at these forecast intervals and relies heavily on a consensus of these ...
Accuracy of Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Guidance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Five statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques available at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and eastern North Pacific seasons were evaluated within three ...
Assessment of Western North Pacific 96- and 120-h Track Guidance and Present Forecastability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has only four dynamical models for guidance in making 96- and 120-h track forecasts, an opportunity exists for improving the consensus forecast by the proper removal of a ...
Statistical Postprocessing of NOGAPS Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A statistical postprocessing technique is developed and tested to reduce the U.S. Navy global model (NOGAPS) track forecast errors for a sample of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 1992?96. The key piece of ...
Examining the Roles of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer and Vorticity Accretion during the Tropical Cyclogenesis of Hurricane Sandy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he tropical cyclogenesis sequence of Hurricane Sandy is examined. It is shown that genesis occurs within a recirculating Kelvin cat?s-eye flow of a westward-propagating tropical wave. The cat?s-eye flow is able to provide ...
A Simple Statistical-Synoptic Track Prediction Technique for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A simple statistical-synoptic technique for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting to 72 h in the western North Pacific is derived. This technique applies to the standard (S) pattern/dominant ridge region (S/DR) and ...
The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools, and Some First Results
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ipal hypotheses of a new model of tropical cyclogenesis, known as the marsupial paradigm, were tested in the context of Atlantic tropical disturbances during the National Science Foundation (NSF)-sponsored Pre-Depression ...