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RISPotential Benefits of Using Probabilistic Forecasts for Waves and Marine Winds Based on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The potential benefits of using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for waves and marine surface winds are demonstrated using buoy and platform data as well as altimeter data. For forecasting purposes, the spread ...
Approximate Stokes Drift Profiles in Deep Water
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: deep-water approximation of the Stokes drift velocity profile is explored as an alternative to the monochromatic profile. The alternative profile investigated relies on the same two quantities required for the monochromatic ...
Effects of Observation Errors on the Statistics for Ensemble Spread and Reliability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The effects of observation errors on rank histograms and reliability diagrams are investigated using a perfect model approach. The three-variable Lorenz-63 model was used to simulate an idealized ensemble prediction system ...
Verification of the ECMWF Wave Forecasting System against Buoy and Altimeter Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The present status of ocean wave modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is reviewed. Ocean waves are forecasted globally up to 10 days by means of the Wave Model (WAM), which is driven ...
Marine Wind and Wave Height Trends at Different ERA-Interim Forecast Ranges
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: rends in marine wind speed and significant wave height are investigated using the global reanalysis ERA-Interim over the period 1979?2012, based on monthly-mean and monthly-maximum data. Besides the traditional reanalysis, ...
Wind–Wave Interaction for Strong Winds
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the northeast Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea, and the North Sea are computed ...
Evaluation of Medium-Range Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n 30 October 2012 Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the U.S. East Coast with a devastating impact. Here the performance of the ECMWF forecasts (both high resolution and ensemble) are evaluated together with ensemble forecasts ...
Intercomparison of the Performance of Operational Ocean Wave Forecasting Systems with Buoy Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The monthly exchange of ocean wave model data has successfully been taking place among five operational weather centers. The data are compared with observations obtained from moored buoys and platforms. The analysis of 3 ...
Global Stokes Drift Climate under the RCP8.5 Scenario
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The future Stokes drift climate is investigated using a global wave climate projection (2071?2100) forced with EC-EARTH winds under the RCP8.5 scenario. The future climate run is compared against a historical run (1976?2005). ...