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RISSystematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ong-standing systematic model errors in both tropics and extratropics of the ECMWF model run at a horizontal resolution typical for climate models are investigated. Based on the hypothesis that the misrepresentation of ...
The Value of Initialization on Decadal Timescales: State-Dependent Predictability in the CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Information in decadal climate prediction arises from a well-initialized ocean state and from the predicted response to an external forcing. The length of time over which the initial conditions benefit the decadal forecast ...
A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Understanding model error in state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and representing its impact on flow-dependent predictability remains a complex and mostly unsolved problem. Here, a spectral stochastic ...
Increasing the Skill of Probabilistic Forecasts: Understanding Performance Improvements from Model-Error Representations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: our model-error schemes for probabilistic forecasts over the contiguous United States with the WRF-ARW mesoscale ensemble system are evaluated in regard to performance. Including a model-error representation leads to ...
Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes ...