Abstract: agrangian extrapolation of recent radar observations is a widely used deterministic nowcasting technique in operational and research centers. However, this technique does not account for errors due to changes in precipitation ...

Abstract: owcasting is the short-range forecast obtained from the latest observed state. Currently, heuristic techniques, such as Lagrangian extrapolation, are the most commonly used for rainfall forecasting. However, the Lagrangian ...

Abstract: ntrinsic predictability is defined as the uncertainty in a forecast due to small errors in the initial conditions. In fact, not only the amplitude but also the structure of these initial errors plays a key role in the ...

Abstract: AbstractModel error in ensemble prediction systems is often represented by either a tendency perturbation approach or a process-based parameter perturbation scheme. In this paper a novel hybrid stochastically perturbed ...