Search
CSV
RISOn the Weighting of Multimodel Ensembles in Seasonal and Short-Range Weather Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of multimodel ensemble forecasting depends on the weights given to the different models of the ensemble in the postprocessing of the direct model forecasts. This paper compares the following different ...
Generalization of the Ignorance Score: Continuous Ranked Version and Its Decomposition
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Brier score (BS) and its generalizations to the multicategory ranked probability score (RPS) and to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) are the prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. ...
Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the ...
A Second-Order Exact Ensemble Square Root Filter for Nonlinear Data Assimilation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and its deterministic variants, mostly square root filters such as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), represent a popular alternative to variational data assimilation schemes and ...
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes in Climate Change Scenarios
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ndian summer monsoon rainfall was examined in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; B1) and a similar greenhouse gas scenario, the new representative concentration ...
Evaluation of Satellite-Based and Reanalysis Precipitation Data in the Tropical Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: lobal precipitation monitoring is essential for understanding the earth?s water and energy cycle. Therefore, usage of satellite-based precipitation data is necessary where in situ data are rare. In addition, atmospheric- ...
Analyzing the Arctic Feedback Mechanism between Sea Ice and Low-Level Clouds Using 34 Years of Satellite Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Satellite-based cloud, radiation flux, and sea ice records covering 34 years are used 1) to investigate autumn cloud cover trends over the Arctic, 2) to assess its relation with declining sea ice using Granger causality ...
Soil Moisture–Precipitation Feedback Processes in the Indian Summer Monsoon Season
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: oil moisture can influence precipitation through a feedback loop with land surface evapotranspiration. A series of numerical simulations, including soil moisture sensitivity experiments, have been performed for the Indian ...
Evaluating Satellite-Based Diurnal Cycles of Precipitation in the African Tropics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: recipitation plays a major role in the energy and water cycles of the earth. Because of its variable nature, consistent observations of global precipitation are challenging. Satellite-based precipitation datasets present ...
Can Regional Climate Models Represent the Indian Monsoon?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he ability of four regional climate models (RCMs) to represent the Indian monsoon was verified in a consistent framework for the period 1981?2000 using the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...