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Practical Predictability of the 20 May 2013 Tornadic Thunderstorm Event in Oklahoma: Sensitivity to Synoptic Timing and Topographical Influence
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he practical predictability of severe convective thunderstorms during the 20 May 2013 severe weather event that produced the catastrophic enhanced Fujita scale 5 (EF-5) tornado in Moore, Oklahoma, was explored using ensembles ...
Evaluation of the Parameter Sensitivities of a Coupled Land Surface Hydrologic Model at a Critical Zone Observatory
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: and surface models (LSMs) and hydrologic models are parameterized models. The number of involved parameters is often large. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a key step to understand the complex relationships between parameters ...
Intercomparison of an Ensemble Kalman Filter with Three- and Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Methods in a Limited-Area Model over the Month of June 2003
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study compares the performance of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with both the three-dimensional and four-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar and 4DVar) methods of the Weather Research and Forecasting ...
Observing Strategy and Observation Targeting for Tropical Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used with ensemble-based sensitivity analysis to explore observing strategies and observation targeting for tropical ...
Rainy-Season Precipitation over the Sichuan Basin and Adjacent Regions in Southwestern China
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he spatial variability and diurnal propagation of mean precipitation in the summer rainy seasons (from 2003 to 2010) over the Sichuan basin (SCB) and adjacent mountainous regions are examined using high spatiotemporal ...
Ensemble-Based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation in a Two-Dimensional Sea-Breeze Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in forced, dissipative flow under imperfect-model conditions is investigated through simultaneous state and parameter estimation where the source of model error is the ...
Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evaluated through 5-yr Forecasts with a Convection-Permitting Regional-Scale Model in the Atlantic Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he practical predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in terms of mean absolute forecast error with respect to different conditions at forecast initialization was explored through convection-permitting hindcasts ...
Consistent Impacts of Surface Enthalpy and Drag Coefficient Uncertainty between an Analytical Model and Simulated Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity and Storm Structure
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Several previous studies have demonstrated the significant sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to variations in surface-exchange coefficients for enthalpy (Ck) and momentum (Cd), respectively. ...
The Governing Dynamics of the Secondary Eyewall Formation of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hrough successful convection-permitting simulations of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using a high-resolution nonhydrostatic model, this study examines the role of peripheral convection in the storm's secondary eyewall formation ...
Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Experiments with Parameterized Convection
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Recent papers by the authors demonstrated the possible influence of initial errors of small amplitude and scale on the numerical prediction of the ?surprise? snowstorm of 24?25 January 2000. They found that initial errors ...