Quantitative Decisions Relative to Structural Integrity

Abstract

The injury potential and increased cost of licensing, insurance premiums, product liability claims, and field repairs or recalls provide strong motivation to quantitatively evaluate and control the risk of various products. Risk analysis involves the definition of the probable failure modes and the assessment of failure probability, failure severity and the corresponding risks and costs. Basic concepts are reviewed and recent developments in methods to quantify the risk of structural failure when limited failure experience is available are presented. An example involving a turbine rotor is described which illustrates how the conventional and, new methods provide a quantitative basis for assessing structural integrity and risk and for making decisions regarding future operation, repair, or replacement.