Project Completion Time and Cost Prediction Using Change Point Analysis

Abstract

Earned value management is one of the most widely used approaches for measuring project performance from both time and cost points of view. It is also a leading technique to predict projects at completion cost and time. There are several methods to achieve forecasts for project final cost and duration. However, most of these methods provide cost and duration values that are different than the actual project cost and duration. This paper uses change point analysis to develop a relatively reliable cost and performance indices for projects that can be used to obtain more accurate estimates for the project final cost and duration considering the latest periods in which the performance level is stable. In addition, change point analysis can help to identify the actual source(s) of change leading to the effective identification of assignable causes. Simulation results for different scenarios indicate satisfactory performance of the proposed method, compared to the existing methods. For the sake of clarity, the application of the developed method is shown using a real case study for a construction project. The results revealed that the proposed approach provides satisfying and consistent results during the whole project execution phase.