Estimated Lifetimes of Road Pavements in Sweden Using Time-to-Event Analysis

Abstract

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time-to-event analysis. The model is stratified according to traffic load and includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size, and climate zone. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime with a hazard ratio (risk of needing maintenance) estimated to be 36% lower than asphalt concrete. Among road types,