Predicting and Tracing Change-Formation Scenarios in Construction Projects Using the DEMATEL Technique

Abstract

Changes are realized as the most common issues during the life cycle of any construction project which may have significant effects on project objectives. Developing a proactive change-management system may decrease the adverse effect of changes on project objectives. This paper proposes a major component of proactive change-management system; it is a framework for predicting and tracing change-formation scenarios (CFSs) in construction projects. In this study, first, change-formation phase is subdivided into change-formation paths (CFPs), by decomposing it to the interrelated change-formation components (CFCs). Then, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique is used for analyzing the CFPs. The DEMATEL is a method that uses graph theory and matrix tools for system analysis. As results of the analysis, the relative importance of the CFCs, and the likelihood of occurrences and the traceability of the CFSs are estimated. Eventually, a real construction project as a practical example is analyzed to demonstrate the framework capabilities.