CBR Revision Model for Improving Cost Prediction Accuracy in Multifamily Housing Projects

Abstract

For any construction project to succeed, it is very important to accurately estimate the construction cost during the project’s initial stage. This is why there has been much interest lately in cost prediction models that use case-based reasoning (CBR). It has been pointed out, however, that existing CBR-based cost prediction models may yield inaccurate results even though they could survey optimal similar cases, if the number of cases in the case base is not enough. As opposed to the existing CBR-based construction cost prediction models, this study developed a CBR revision model that reflects the “revise” phase of the CBR cycle (retrieve, reuse, revise, and retain) based on nine multifamily housing projects executed recently by “A” Housing Corporation. To verify the developed model, a case study was performed using three case projects completed by “B” and “C” Housing Corporations. The result showed that the prediction error ratio after the Revise (I) phase decreased from 97.44 to 22.58%. This model can be effective when there are insufficient established cases in the case base.