Surface Analysis of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Response to Different Nutrient and Sediment Loads

Abstract

Based on a set of Chesapeake Bay Estuarine Model (CBEM) scenarios, a three-dimensional response surface of a water quality index, such as chlorophyll concentration, versus a pair of loading constituents, e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus, is constructed. The responses of water quality, such as dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, and water clarity, to nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads are analyzed. From the response surface, a water quality response is estimated under loading conditions beyond that of a limited set of scenarios. Response surfaces may be used to determine the possible universe of nutrient and sediment load reductions needed to obtain a particular water quality standard and to examine the tradeoffs among nutrient and sediment load reductions that achieve the same water quality objective.