Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem

Abstract

This paper presents a characterization of the paradoxical hydrological stationarity problem using long-term precipitation data of geographically sparse gauging stations in California. The metrics of this characterization for a gauging station are given by (1) the average of recorded long-term precipitation; (2) the average precision with which the precipitation can be estimated for a climatological time period; (3) an identifier of the wettest climatological period in the long-term record; (4) an identifier of the driest climatological period in the long-term record; (5) the net-gain or net-loss rate of long-term precipitation; and (6) the interclimatological period variability of precipitation. The paper then presents a step taken to find deterministic outcomes for the paradoxical hydrological stationarity problem by showing that these outcomes may hinge on the transient positions of the Earth and Moon around the sun, as observed in Saros series and cycles of historical solar eclipse trajectories (SETs). Two solar eclipse events that are one Saros cycle apart have the same Saros series; they occur at nodes that share similar geometry with the Moon at nearly the same distance from the Earth and at the same time of year. On the basis of the observation of these cyclic events, this work demonstrates that two different water years with solar eclipse event trajectories separated by one Saros cycle of about 18 years have similar hydrological conditions on Earth, as measured by the precipitation data recorded in California. This finding may significantly improve decadal to multidecadal predictions of hydrological conditions for planners and decision makers. Although these results are likely to have implications for continent and global hydrological variability, they need further validation studies using available data for other locations globally.