Engineering Procedure for the Climate Change Flood Risk Assessment in the Upper Thames River Basin

Abstract

Climate change will bring more severe and frequent floods to the Upper Thames River basin. The city of London, with a population of over 350,000, is one of the most vulnerable locations in the basin. This paper presents an original methodology used to prepare the input for flood risk assessment under climate change. The methodology involves integrated climate-hydrologic-hydraulic modeling analyses for floodplain mapping under the changing climatic conditions. Using 43 years of historical data at 15 stations in the Upper Thames River basin and global circulation model predictions, the potential climate change impacts on flood risk in the basin are provided. The results indicate that, under climate change, the extent of flood impacts will be larger (larger areas inundated with larger water depth), and will therefore increase the level of risk to public infrastructure. Results of the study are being used in a quantitative assessment of risk to the municipal infrastructure.