Forecasts of Funding Needs for Infrastructure Renewal

Abstract

The objective of the work from which this paper was derived included the development of a construction estimating technique for preparing long term cost and timing forecasts of funding needs for renewal of constructed infrastructure. The work was undertaken with the aim of improving rational preparation technique for adequate user fee policies and providing justification for their use. In addition, as opposed to preparation by other types of professionals, this technique was primarily focused on the particular contributions that experienced construction estimators could make to this process. The paper describes: procedures for conversion of construction cost estimates to renewal cost estimates, in a form that can be correlated with data on the service life of components; a tool that accounts for multiple cyclic occurrences of renewal event costs; the generation of time serial forecasts for yearly renewal costs; and forecasts of needed revenue recovery rates for renewal construction. This estimating technique is meant to improve the financial effectiveness, performance, and reliability of the many different types of civil and private facilities to which it could be applied.