Identifying Weather Patterns Associated with Increased Volcanic Ash Risk within British Isles Airspace

Abstract

Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to have an impact on public health and aviation across northern and western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing weather conditions and the nature of the eruption. This study focuses on the former utilizing an existing set of 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office. Associated daily historical classifications are used to assess which weather patterns are most likely to result in flow from Iceland into four flight information regions (FIRs) covering the British Isles and North Atlantic, which may lead to disruption to aviation during Icelandic volcanic episodes. High-risk weather patterns vary between FIRs, with a total of 14 weather patterns impacting at least one FIR. These high-risk types predominantly have a northwesterly or westerly flow from Iceland into British Isles airspace. Analysis of the historical classifications reveals a typical duration for high-risk periods of 3–5 days, when transitions between high-risk types are considered. High-risk periods lasting over a week are also possible in all four FIRs. Additionally, impacts are more likely in winter months for most FIRs. Knowledge of high-risk weather patterns for aviation can be used within existing operational probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tools. Combined probabilities for high-risk weather patterns can be derived for the medium-range (1–2 weeks ahead) and used to provide a rapid assessment as to the likelihood of flow from Iceland. This weather pattern forecasting application is illustrated using archived forecast data for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption.