An Integrated Approach for Capturing Intermediate Demographic Changes

Abstract

Developing countries face greater urbanization challenges than developed countries. The majority of the challenges that developing countries face are due to demographic changes (DCs). The DCs, particularly in disparities, have a major influence on development processes and inclusive and balanced growth. Due to the lack of a regular monitoring mechanism for DCs, several tools and methods were developed to extrapolate the data for DCs. Most of them rely on census data and do not take into consideration the dynamic aspect of migration that plays a major role in DC. This study develops a hybrid approach to model the magnitude of spatial and temporal changes in DCs. The rational choice theory was considered to understand the reasons for the movement of people. To model DCs, some of the macro factors that play an important role were identified. A hybrid approach that integrates the analytical hierarchy process–entropy (AHP) method was used to evaluate criterion weights subjectively and objectively. The method was applied on a mesoscale, which showed interdistrict disparities. The real-time values were scaled and overlaid with AHP-entropy obtained weights with the help of weighted sum overlay tool. The values were processed in a geographic information system (GIS), which showed the regional disparities and their effects on the overall demographic scenario of a district. The ratio of changes in DCs was further evaluated as discrete values. The final values of the DCs obtained from the model were compared with the actual values of different districts, which showed an average of 80% accuracy of the model.