| description abstract | This paper examines the development trends of urban construction land in 17 cities within the Shandong province, China, and uses multivariate linear regression, a geographical detector, and a spatial neighborhood analysis to determine the spatiotemporal driving mechanisms of construction land development from 1985 to 2015. The results reveal clear differences in the scale, rate, direction, and stability of urban construction land, and the 17 cities investigated were divided into four development models, including the uncoordinated wave cities (Jinan, Yantai, and Weifang), uncoordinated stable cities (Zibo, Rizhao, Linyi, Dongying, and Binzhou), coordinated wave cities (Qingdao, Zaozhuang, Taian, Laiwu, Weihai, and Liaocheng), and coordinated stable cities (Jining, Dezhou, and Heze). A number of temporal driving factors affected the expansion scale of urban construction land, including the natural population growth rate, employment index, second industry structure ratio, and firm size index, whereas the spatial driving factors that affected the spatial pattern of urban construction land included the distance to the main railway, distance to the main road, and distance to the city center. Next, points were assigned to different levels of characteristics and spatiotemporal driving factors of the urban construction land, a composite score of urban development was obtained, and the 17 cities were divided into the following zones: core trading (Qingdao), key development (Jinan and Yantai), industrial cluster (Jining, Laiwu, Linyi, Weifang, Weihai, and Zibo), and conserving economic zones (which included the remaining eight cities). Different functions and development directions should be considered in these different zones. For instance, more international trade markets should be built in Qingdao to promote the export of industrial products, whereas Jinan and Yantai should target development into megacities, and provide technical guidance and industry driving for the surrounding cities. Finally, the study recommends the intensive use of land, industrial transformation, and upgrading, as well as multifunctional development planning and building a multidimensional transportation network to promote coordinated and integrated development in Shandong province. | |
