| description abstract | Warming climate impacts on net aviation fuel consumption are estimated using a 34-climate model ensemble, based on a canonical fuel-burning equation, focusing on increased atmospheric viscosity at cruising altitudes.Aircraft cruising near the tropopause currently benefit from the highest thermal efficiency and the least viscous (sticky) air, within the lowest 50 km of the Earth’s atmosphere. Both advantages wane in a warming climate, because atmospheric dynamic viscosity increases with temperature, in synergy with the simultaneous engine efficiency reduction. Here, skin friction drag, the dominant term for extra aviation fuel consumption in a future warming climate, is quantified by 34 climate models under a strong emissions scenario. Since 1950, the viscosity increase at cruising altitudes (∼200 hPa) reaches ∼1.5% per century, corresponding to a total drag increment of ∼0.22% per century for commercial aircraft. Meridional gradients and regional disparities exist, with low-mid latitudes experiencing greater increases in skin friction drag. The North Atlantic Corridor (NAC) is moderately affected, but its high traffic volume generates additional fuel cost of ∼3.8×107 gallons annually by 2100, compared to 2010. Globally, a normal year after 2100 would consume an extra ∼4×106 barrels per year. Inter model spread is <5% of the ensemble mean, due to high inter-climate model consensus for warming trends at cruising altitudes in the tropics and subtropics. Because temperature is a well simulated parameter in the IPCC archive, with only a moderate inter-model spread, the conclusions drawn here are statistically robust. Notably, additional fuel costs are likely from the increased vertical shear and related turbulence at NAC cruising altitudes. Increased flight log availability is required to confirm this apparent increasing turbulence trend. | |
