Multiscale Forecasting of High-Impact Weather: Current Status and Future Challenges

Abstract

The WMO HIWeather Multiscale Hazard Forecasting project members and collaborators review the current status and future challenges in Observations, Nowcasting, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Forecasting, and Coupled Hazard Modeling.Improving the forecasting and communication of weather hazards such as urban floods and extreme winds has been recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a priority for international weather research. The WMO has established a ten-year “HIWeather” project to address global challenges and accelerate progress on scientific and social solutions. In this review, key challenges in hazard forecasting are first illustrated and summarized via four examples of high-impact weather events. Following this, a synthesis of the requirements, current status, and future research in Observations; Multiscale Data Assimilation; Multiscale Ensemble Forecasting; and Multiscale Coupled Hazard Modeling is provided.