Framework for Proactive Change Management: Assessing the Risk of Change in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Abstract

Changes that occur during a project are a common and inevitable problem in the construction industry. Change is an important source of risk that could affect project performance significantly; thus, it is necessary to consider measures to predict and assess the risk of change. The purpose of this study was to develop a new framework for proactive change management in construction projects using fuzzy logic–based fault tree analysis. Fault tree analysis facilitates the evaluation of the change-formation process and assessment of the probability of change. In this study, fuzzy logic was used for quantitative analysis of the fault tree and to assess the impact of change on project objectives. A risk index was developed to assess the risk of change while considering the probability and impact of change. The use of the framework provides a better understanding of the change-formation process and the effect that the potential change will have on project objectives. It also helps to identify the most significant causes of change so that the project team can address these critical causes and establish more effective risk-response strategies.