An Approach to Uncertainty Identification in the Valuation of Transactive Energy Systems

Abstract

Valuation of transactive energy (TE) systems should be supported by a structured and systematic approach to uncertainty identification, assessment, and treatment in the interest of risk-informed decision making. The proposed approach, a variation of fault tree analysis, is anticipated to support valuation analysts in analyzing conventional and transactive system scenarios. This approach allows for expanding the entire tree up to the level of minute details or collapsing them to a level sufficient enough to get an overview of the problem. Quantification scheme for the described approach lends itself for valuation. The method complements value exchange analysis, simulation, and field demonstration studies. The practicality of the proposed approach is demonstrated through uncertainty assessment of the smart grid interoperability panel peak heat day scenario.