Prediction of Track Deterioration Using Maintenance Data and Machine Learning Schemes

Abstract

The maintenance and renewal of ballasted track can be optimized in terms of time and cost if a proper statistical model of track deterioration is derived from previous maintenance history and measurement data. In this regard, quite a few models with simplified assumptions on the parameters have been suggested for the deterioration of ballasted track. Meanwhile, data driven models such as the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), which are basic ingredients of machine learning (ML) technology, were introduced in this study to better represent the deterioration phenomena of track segments so that the results can be directly plugged into the optimization schemes. For this purpose, the influential parameters of track deterioration have been selected based on the maintenance history, and two ML models have been studied to find the best combination of input parameters. Through numerical experiments, it was found that at least 2 years of maintenance data were needed in our case to obtain a stable prediction of track deterioration.