Discrepancy in Perceived Hurricane Risks in a Changing Climate

Abstract

Buildings are constructed for lifespans of several decades. Thus the decisions made to construct and retrofit buildings should properly take into account the risk profile in the future. Recent studies have suggested that the climate will change in the future and the hurricane risk profile may change as well. It is difficult to accurately forecast the trend of the changes due to a high level of uncertainty and conflicts in the reported projections. In the presence of such high uncertainty, it is often difficult to understand the risk, resulting in distorted perceptions of risk. This paper uses cumulative prospect theory to investigate the potential discrepancy between future hurricane risks perceived by various stakeholders. A simple framework based on a concept of weighted probability is established to model the perceived likelihood of climate change. Perceived hurricane risks are then assessed in terms of hazard exposure, potential damage to individual houses, and potential regional loss for a study region. The investigation reveals potential discrepancies in the perceived risks.