Impact of Model Errors of Burst Capacity Models on the Reliability Evaluation of Corroding Pipelines

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of model error associated with the burst capacity model on the probability of burst of corroding oil and gas pipelines due to the internal pressure. Three burst pressure models that are widely used in the pipeline industry, namely the B31G Modified, det norske veritas (DNV), and pipeline corrosion failure criterion (PCORRC) models, are considered in the analyses. The time-dependent probabilities of burst of three hypothetical examples, which are representative of the oil and gas transmission pipelines in the United States, are evaluated by using the first-order reliability method (FORM) to carry out the comparative study. The analysis results indicate that the model error has a substantial effect on the burst probability evaluated. The probabilities of burst evaluated by considering the model error can be several orders of magnitude higher than those evaluated by ignoring the model error. The results underscore the critical importance of including the model error associated with the burst capacity model in the reliability analysis of corroding pipelines.