Robust Energy Mix Options in Japan under Uncertainty

Abstract

It is crucial for the Japanese government to establish a new energy mix plan since the previous plan was subject to review after the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The Japanese government proposed a new energy mix option in June 2015. However, the high degree of uncertainty will impair the robustness of energy mix options decided based on predictions. This paper uses robust decision making (RDM) to take uncertainty into account and determine robust energy mix options. An hourly electricity dispatch and power plant renewal simulation covering 2016–2035 in Japan is conducted to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of several energy mix options. The results show that the options with greater use of coal-fired and wind power plants have robustness against future uncertainties and that the current government plan is inefficient.