Markov-Based Reliability Assessment for Hydraulic Design of Concrete Stormwater Pipes

Abstract

This study aims to assess the reliability of hydraulic performance of concrete pipes at the design stage. The reliability assessment is on the basis of the use of Markov chain theory for modeling pipe deterioration during service life and coefficient of variation (COV) for representing uncertainty in design, installation, and operational parameters. The results of a case study in this study show that increasing pipe diameter from 600 mm (as per current design) to 750 mm (as per reliability assessment) can significantly reduce the risk of hydraulic failure during service life and delay inspection and hydraulic rehabilitation by 10 years.