Design Strategies of an Hourly Update 3DVAR Data Assimilation System for Improved Convective Forecasting

Abstract

his study examines two strategies for improving the analysis of an hourly update three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system and the subsequent quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The first strategy is to assimilate synoptic and radar observations in different steps. This strategy aims to extract both large-scale and convective-scale information from observations typically representing different scales. The second strategy is to add a divergence constraint to the momentum variables in the 3DVAR system. This technique aims at improving the dynamic balance and suppressing noise introduced during the assimilation process. A detailed analysis on how the new techniques impact convective-scale QPF was conducted using a severe storm case over Colorado and Kansas during 8 and 9 August 2008. First, it is demonstrated that, without the new strategies, the QPF initialized with an hourly update analysis performs worse than its 3-hourly counterpart. The implementation of the two-step assimilation and divergence constraint in the hourly update system results in improved QPF throughout most of the 12-h forecast period. The diagnoses of the analysis fields show that the two-step assimilation is able to preserve key convective-scale as well as large-scale structures that are consistent with the development of the real weather system. The divergence constraint is effective in improving the balance between the momentum control variables in the analysis, which leads to less spurious convection and improved QPF scores. The improvements of the new techniques were further verified by eight convective cases in 2014 and shown to be statistically significant.