Estimating the Impact of Real Observations in Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract

he ensemble sensitivity method of Liu and Kalnay estimates the impact of observations on forecasts without observing system experiments (OSEs), in a manner similar to the adjoint sensitivity method of Langland and Baker but without using an adjoint model. In this study, the ensemble sensitivity method is implemented with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with real observations. The results in the case of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) show that upper-air soundings have the largest positive impact on the 12-h forecasts, and that the targeted impact evaluation performs as expected and is computationally efficient. Denying negative-impact observations improves the forecasts, validating the estimated observation impact.