Cloud-Cover Recurrence and Diurnal Variation

Abstract

Estimators of conditional probabilities of recurrence of six-eighths or more cloud cover, given a set of unconditional probabilities according to initial times, are presented and tested against a sample of Northern Hemispheric data. The estimators are shown to be highly efficient in the sense that more than 95% of the achieved estimates fall within ±0.02 of observed values of the conditional probabilities. A sensitivity analysis is presented to demonstrate that the methodology and results are essentially independent of particular data source with regard to geographic location, climatic regime, or season of the year insofar as parameter determination and concomitant accuracy of estimation are concerned. Extensions to broader classes of meteorological phenomena are also indicated.