“Good” Probability Assessors

Abstract

Since a meteorologist's predictions are subjective, a framework for the evaluation of meteorological probability assessors must be consistent with the theory of subjective probability. Such a framework is described in this paper. First, two standards of ?goodness,? one based upon normative considerations and one based upon substantive considerations, are proposed. Specific properties which a meteorologist's assessments should possess are identified for each standard. Then, several measures of ?goodness,? or scoring rules, which indicate the extent to which such assessments possess certain properties, are described. Finally, several important uses of these scoring rules are considered.