AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF A NUMERICAL PREDICTION METHOD FOR HURRICANES

Abstract

Seventeen forecasts of hurricane tracks, each up to 72 hours, were made by numerical methods under operational conditions as a test of Kasahara's [5] prediction model. Although the small size of the sample precludes making firm conclusions, the results here obtained compare unfavorably with the regularly issued subjective forecasts. In general, the forecast motion is too slow and to the right of the actual hurricane track.