A PRELIMINARY REPORT ON NUMERICAL SEA CONDITION FORECASTS

Abstract

Since July 1956 the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit at Suitland, Md., has been making machine forecasts of sea conditions on an operational basis. These prognoses are based on the 1,000-mb. wind forecasts derived from the two-level, thermotropic model currently in use at JNWP. Two different sea-forecast models have been tested to date. The first utilized only the forecast winds at the end of the forecast period and therefore yielded ?fully developed waves.? A model incorporating ?duration? in a crude manner is now in daily operation. This paper describes both methods, compares the numerical results with observed conditions, and outlines future plans.