HURRICANE TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FROM A NON-DIVERGENT, NON-GEOSTROPHIC, BAROTROPIC MODEL

Abstract

A numerical method for obtaining trajectories from non-divergent, non-geostrophic, barotropic forecasts is presented. The wind used in the computation of direction and speed of movement is derived from a Least Squares cubic surface fitted to sixteen stream-function values surrounding the point of interest. One-hour time steps are used. The method is applied to the forecasting of hurricane tracks and useful results are obtained for periods up to 36 hours. Several other uses of trajectory forecasts are suggested.