THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING IN THE ATLANTA, GA., AREA

Abstract

A quasi-objective method is presented for predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Atlanta area during the 12-hour period beginning at 1330 EST in the months of July and August. Variables measuring moisture, stability, and circulation patterns at the 850- and 700-mb. levels are combined through the use of scatter diagrams to determine a tentative forecast. These ?forecasts? were checked on two seasons of independent data and in actual use during four additional seasons. The independent data were later added to the dependent data and it was found that neither the analysis of the scatter diagrams nor the accuracy of the forecasts showed any appreciable change.