AN OBJECTIVE METHOD OF FORECASTING SUMMER PRECIPITATION AT SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

Abstract

An attempt is made to develop an objective method of forecasting summer precipitation at Salt Lake City, using moisture variables on a scatter diagram. These variables are surface dew point at Salt Lake City vs. the minimum temperature-dew-point spread between 700 and 500 mb. at a nearby raob station selected according to the 12,000-foot wind direction at Salt Lake City. Probability lines for the occurrence of both measurable rain and a trace or more are drawn. Skill scores and percentage of correct forecasts are computed for both original and test data and compared with Weather Bureau staff forecasts.