Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity: Statistics and a Physical Mechanism

Abstract

The authors provide a statistical and physical basis for understanding regional variations in major hurricane activity along the U.S. coastline on long timescales. Current statistical models of hurricane activity are focused on the frequency of events over the entire North Atlantic basin. The exception is the lead author?s previous work, which models the occurrence of hurricanes over the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the southeast U.S. coast separately. Here the authors use statistics to analyze data from historical and paleoclimatic records to expand this work. In particular, an inverse correlation in major hurricane activity across latitudes at various timescales is articulated. When activity is above normal at high latitudes it tends to be below normal at low latitudes and vice versa. Past research, paleoclimatic records, and historical data hint at the potential of using the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) as an indicator of where storms will likely track over long timescales. An excited (relaxed) NAO is associated with higher (lower) latitude recurving (nonrecurving) storms. The Gulf (East) Coast is more susceptible to a major hurricane strike during a relaxed (excited) NAO.